Auto loan delinquencies rise as loan-accommodation programs end

With inflation cutting into the budgets of Americans, a growing percentage of people with auto loans are struggling to make their monthly payments.

TransUnion, which tracks more than 81 million auto loans in the U.S., said Tuesday the percentage of loans that are at least 60 days delinquent hit 1.65% in the third quarter, the highest rate for 60-day delinquencies in more than a decade

“Consumers still want to stay current as best that they can. It’s just this inflationary environment is making it challenging,” Satyan Merchant, senior vice president of TransUnion, told CNBC. “It leaves fewer dollars in their pocket to make the auto loan payment, because they’ve got to pay more for eggs and milk and other things.”

The biggest impact is being felt among among subprime borrowers who have lower credit scores and often have lower income.

In September, the average transaction price for a new vehicle was $47,138, up almost $2,600 compared with the year-earlier period, according to the auto research firm Edmunds. The average price paid for a used vehicle was $30,566, a jump of almost $2,500 from September 2021.

The rise in delinquencies also follows the end of loan-accommodation programs set up during the pandemic. Those programs were designed to help consumers who may have lost their job to avoid having a car repossessed because they couldn’t make the monthly payment. 

“There has been this effect where the delinquency that may have occurred over the last few years is really just pushed out or delayed because that consumer didn’t have to make payments or their status was on an accommodation. So now some of those are hitting,” Merchant said. 

TransUnion said approximately 200,000 auto loans that previously took advantage of the pandemic-era accommodation are now listed as 60 days delinquent. About 100,000 accounts that are more than 60 days delinquent remain in accommodation programs, the credit firm said.

Despite the rise in delinquencies, Merchant believes the auto loan market remains healthy. The average interest rate for a new-vehicle loan climbed to 5.2% in the third quarter, while the average rate for a used vehicle loan hit 9.7%, according to TransUnion. Both are up more than one percentage point compared with the year-earlier period.

Those higher interest rates are pressuring many consumers to stretch out the terms of their loans to at least seven years, Merchant said. Still, delinquency rates have been kept somewhat in check by low unemployment.

“If we get into a position where employment starts to be a challenge in the United States and unemployment increases, that is when the industry will really start to be concerned about a consumer’s ability to pay their auto loans,” he said.

— CNBC’s Meghan Reeder contributed to this report.

Original article published to CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/08/auto-loan-delinquencies-rise-as-loan-accommodation-programs-end-.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.glip.mobile.shareExtension

AutoNation’s CEO Warns of Used-Car Price Drop as Rising Rates Curb Demand

(Bloomberg) — AutoNation Inc., the biggest US chain of car dealerships, warned that used-vehicle prices are softening as rising interest rates curb demand from more price-sensitive buyers.

The company said Thursday that third-quarter earnings rose to $6 a share excluding some items. That was below the $6.29 a share average of analysts’ estimates. Revenue increased 4% to $6.67 billion, roughly in line with the average of Wall Street projections.

Mike Manley, who took over as chief executive officer of AutoNation a year ago, said he’s been aggressively turning over his portfolio of used cars to make sure he doesn’t get stuck selling them for less than he paid.

“We’re beginning to see used-car prices mitigate with faster depreciation” among mainstream and budget cars, Manley said in an interview. “We benefit from the mix of our portfolio being premium luxury.”

Shares of the company, which also said its board approved a stock buyback of up to $1 billion, pared an early gain of as much as 6.7% to trade up 3.2% to $105.64 as of 9:57 a.m. in New York.

Separately, Hertz Global Holdings Inc. said Thursday that its depreciation costs jumped in the third quarter, reflecting the decline in prices its used cars fetch at auction. Still, the rental-car company narrowly beat Wall Street’s estimates for profit in the period.

Pent-Up Demand

AutoNation’s CEO said new-vehicle inventory is still tight, despite the chip shortage beginning to ease, and there is strong, pent-up demand for vehicles priced above $30,000.

“It’s easing rather than becoming a glut,” he said.

New-car inventory will remain below pre-pandemic levels next year as automakers try to preserve margins to pay for electrification, Manley said on an earnings call Thursday.

In the used-car market, it’s just a matter of time before weaker prices at car auctions filter through to the retail market, pressuring margins for dealers, he said.

Last month, used-car retailer CarMax Inc. said profit from wholesale vehicles dropped 30% in its second quarter as buyers encountered “affordability challenges” and its bank of used cars depreciated.

The article was originally posted by Bloomberg. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/autonation-s-ceo-warns-of-used-car-price-drop-as-rising-rates-curb-demand/ar-AA13qSuj?cvid=d80090900b4a4c25cd9c52261cc24e40&ocid=winp2sv1plustaskbar

The Solution to Dealership Success In Today’s Depressed Economy

In the post-pandemic climate of inventory shortages and heightened consumer demand, industry analysts predicted automakers would sell as many vehicles as they could build. But now, just as supply chains and inventories are starting to flow again, there are new pressures on the horizon. Inflation, and the interest rate hikes meant to ease it, are leading to higher auto financing costs and cooling demand for new cars, according to Agent Entrepreneur. 

Last month, the average interest rate on a new vehicle purchase hit 5.7%, an increase from about 4% in 2021. “It seems likely that much of the pent-up demand from limited supply will dissipate quickly as high interest rates erode car buyers’ willingness and ability to buy,” said Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough. Adding to the equation, the average price for new vehicles reached $45,971 in Q3 2022, up 10% from a year earlier and the highest of any quarter on record, according to J.D. Power.

The irony for dealerships is that just when new vehicles are finally becoming more available, most car buyers can no longer afford them. AutoPayPlus offers dealerships a solution to this challenge. 

AutoPayPlus is an F&I service that uses automated biweekly payments to help car buyers better afford their loan payment, purchase additional products, shorten their trade cycle and return to the dealership with less negative equity. A 10-year analysis has shown that dealerships sell approximately 57% more F&I products on AutoPayPlus deals versus standard retail deals. In addition, results from our company’s top dealer groups reveal a 63% increase in per-vehicle financed income on AutoPayPlus customers.

How does it work? Standard auto loans require one payment every month. Biweekly loan payments divide the monthly amount in half and pay it every two weeks. Because there are 52 weeks in a year, the borrower makes 13 payments over the course of a year (instead of 12) with the extra payment applied to the principal. 

These smaller biweekly payments are scheduled to coincide with when the borrower gets paid to make it easier to plan for and ensure timely repayment. On a monthly basis though, the payment amount is the same. Simply put, this biweekly strategy gives dealerships a solution to present affordable payments in challenging times.

A lot has also been written in recent months about the wisdom of generating more revenue from the service department as a way to improve a dealership’s bottom line and, in turn, create customers who return to the dealership to buy their next vehicle. AutoPayPlus can help here, as well.

The company offers dealerships an industry-first fintech solution for increasing profits from customer-pay service and boosting customer retention. AutoPay+PERKS combines the company’s biweekly loan payment service with the added advantage of a Mastercard debit card at no additional cost to the customer or dealer. 

Once a customer’s AutoPayPlus account has been active for six months and it’s time for their first service, AutoPayPlus sends them a debit Mastercard co-branded with the dealership’s logo and preloaded with $100 that can only be used at the selling dealership’s service department. A dealer boost program allows dealers to load additional funds to the card, further incentivizing their customers’ return to the dealership. It’s a guaranteed way for dealerships to drive new customers to the service department that doesn’t interfere with any other existing retention program such as pre-paid maintenance and, best of all, it’s easy and can be cost-free for dealerships to implement.

As interest rates increase, car buyers are facing significantly higher auto loan payments. And, with no notable inventory improvements forecasted for the fourth quarter combined with waning new-vehicle demand, Cox Automotive is projecting sales in 2022 will be down more than 9% versus 2021 and at the lowest level in a decade. 

Yet, in the face of continued market volatility, supply chain and inventory concerns, and questionable consumer financial strength, opportunity still exists. “The key to a dealership’s success today is to maximize its two primary profit sources,” AutoPayPlus CEO Robert M. Steenbergh explains. “Our programs give agents something to offer their dealerships that no other biweekly program can deliver and a solution to continually build customer loyalty.” 

Originally published on Linkedin by John Stephens, CSO of AutoPayPlus. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/solution-dealership-success-todays-depressed-economy-john-stephens/

November Newsletter

November ushers in the official holiday season for many; that comes with a packed schedule full of to-do lists, dinners, trips, etc. Amid all the usual holiday chaos, many of you are expected to wrap-up the current year of business as well as lay out budgets, strategies, and forecasts for the coming year.

This November also brings national and local elections to us. One of the greatest gifts we have as Americans is the ability to get out and vote. Sadly, for a myriad of reasons, many Americans (about half of eligible voters) choose not to vote in mid-term elections. A lot of people only think about voting every four-years when the presidency is on the ballot. Fact is, there is a tremendous amount being done at the state, county, and local level. State representatives, judges, city council, etc. are most likely on ballots in your area. Please get out and vote this November.

As we evaluate 2022 and the successes or opportunities we have had, we must turn our attention to 2023 and what lies ahead. As with 2021, and 2022, there is much uncertainty in the economy, supply-chain, monetary policy, etc.

Here are a few questions being asked…

Although nobody knows for certain what the future holds, we do know there will always be consumers looking to purchase vehicles. The number of consumers and the prices they are willing to pay may vary, but the founding principles of our industry will remain strong and the dealers who provide the best experience will create the greatest value.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Here’s to another great month for everyone!

To view, our entire newsletter follow the link https://mailchi.mp/advdealer.com/november-newsletter.

We encourage you to vote!

This November brings national and local elections to us. One of the greatest gifts we have as Americans is the ability to get out and vote. Sadly, for a myriad of reasons, many Americans (about half of eligible voters) choose not to vote in mid-term elections. A lot of people only think about voting every four-years when the presidency is on the ballot. Fact is, there is a tremendous amount being done at the state, county, and local level. State representatives, judges, city council, etc. are most likely on ballots in your area. Please get out and vote this November.

Automotive Marketing & Industry Trends Shaping 2023

Several automotive industry trends are impacting its future in 2023 and beyond. These trends involve how vehicles are powered, driven, shopped for, and acquired. Plus, there are statistics you must know about if you plan to buy a vehicle in 2023. Here are the top 10 trends shaping the future of the rapidly changing auto industry and some critical motor vehicle-related statistics.

Trends Shaping The Auto Industry In 2023

1. Increased Production Of Electric Cars With Digital Technology

Automakers continue to integrate more digital technology into their vehicles. Technology companies like Google and Tesla are also working on electric and self-driving vehicles. As a result, it’s clear that vehicles produced in 2023 and beyond with be full of technology to address digital touchpoints. There’s fierce competition to develop software and digital and electronic operating systems to power and control the new, innovative zero-emission electric vehicles. These new vehicles will be filled with digital technology.

2. A Rise In Digital Automobile Sales

Automakers in North America and Europe have started giving consumers the option to skip the visit to the car dealership and pick and purchase the vehicles they want online. With a computer or smartphone, buyers can shop at their convenience, explore and select the features they want on a vehicle and get the financing they need. In addition, dealerships now offer online sales, let an online buyer use virtual walk-around technology, facilitate at-home test drives and do home delivery of vehicles they sell. More dealerships will do so in 2023.

3. Increased Sales Of Pre-Owned Vehicles

There is a boom in used car sales going on. Car industry experts anticipate a 9% growth rate in used car sales between 2019 and 2025. The demand for used automobiles is rising, particularly for vehicles four years old or newer. These vehicles have many of the latest automotive technologies but are not as expensive as new ones. This includes pre-owned electric and hybrid automobiles. Dealerships now have inventories full of certified pre-owned autos that look, feel, and function like new cars but cost much less. Low APR financing also helps make pre-owned vehicles very attractive

4. More Connected Cars

Connected cars are vehicles connected to the Internet of Things using wireless means. These vehicles provide a safe, comfortable, convenient multimedia experience by using on-demand features that allow you to do anything you want on the web while in your vehicle. Connected cars can communicate bidirectionally with various other systems outside their local network. The vehicles can share internet access and data with devices inside and outside the car. Connected cars now send digital data and remote diagnostics, vehicle health reports, data-only telematics, access 4G LTE Wi-Fi Hotspots, get turn-by-turn directions, warn of car health issues and directly intervene to prevent breakdowns. Over a billion customer requests were processed by 2015, and connected car technology will explode on the scene in diverse ways in 2023 using predictive intelligence and maintenance technology

5. More Innovative Online Marketing Strategies

In China, automobile dealers use third-party e-commerce platforms to market cars, schedule visits, and book test drives. Social media influencers will significantly engage consumers and generate interest in the new vehicles hitting the market in 2023. Technology enablers like Roadster, G Forces, Digital Motors, Sophus3, and CitNow power the automotive ecosystem and engage customers digitally with compelling images, captivating presentations, and potent pitches. And car buyers can expect much more of it in 2023.

6. The Emergence Of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

In 2023, the worldwide emergence of fuel cell electric vehicles is poised. More and more people embrace fuel cell electric vehicles because they recharge faster, have up to 5 times the range of other electric vehicles, and only emit water out of their tailpipes. Many cars, truck, and SUV manufacturers are investing in fuel cell electric vehicle development. China, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and the United States are backing fuel cell electric auto technology. So, 2023 could be the year they break through.

7. Shared Mobility

Shared mobility is a new business model growing in popularity that’s an alternative to vehicle ownership in the traditional sense. With shared mobility, two or more people use the exact vehicle with short-term access. It’s mobility-as-a-service like Uber or using a personal rental. This demand-driven vehicle-sharing arrangement has become a lot more popular in recent years. New companies offering shared mobility options are popping up daily, creating a creative, affordable, convenient alternative to vehicle ownership’s high costs and many responsibilities. Shared mobility is expected to grow dramatically in 2023.

8. Autonomous Self-Driving Vehicles

Autonomous self-driving vehicles are here and will be more prevalent in 2023 and beyond. Research has shown autonomous vehicles are safer, reduce downtime, expand the last-mile delivery scope, reduce driver fatigue and negligence-related accidents, improve fuel efficiency by 10%, and reduce CO2 emissions by 42 million metric tons annually. Several trucking companies have installed self-driving technology and have tested it at locations nationwide. Beginning in 2023, it will become commonplace to see a fleet of autonomous self-driving commercial trucks or a self-driving Tesla in the lane next to you.

9. Truck Platooning

Another automotive industry trend you will see more in 2023 is truck platooning. This is when multiple trucks use vehicle-to-vehicle connectivity to drive close behind each other while traveling at high speeds. Truck platooning will become more common in 2023 and beyond because research has shown that trucks driving in this type of formation increase their fuel efficiency exponentially. Truck platooning is particularly effective when used in combination with autonomous freight transport. As autonomous self-driving trucks become more commonplace on the road, so will the use of truck platooning.

10. Automakers And Technology Company Partnerships

With the rapid rate at which new technological advancements are being added to cars and other vehicles, it’s not surprising to see automakers and technology companies forming partnerships. Electric, connected, and autonomous vehicles require specialized software and advanced technology to function safely and correctly. Car, truck and SUV manufacturers must either make massive investments in their technology divisions or partner with tech companies that can design and produce the new operating systems the next generation of technologically advanced automobiles will need. In 2023 you will see many more automobile manufacturers and tech company partnerships.

10 Must-Know Statistics

The emerging automotive trends are caused by and are creating several significant changes in the habits of consumers. Here are ten must-know statistics that can help you see those trends’ impact.

  1. In the United States, automobile dealerships and auto parts stores make up 20% of the country’s retail sales. That is the largest sector of the total U.S retail sales.
  2. In 2020, the automotive industry in the United States employed 4.1 million people and contributed $562.2 billion to the country’s gross domestic product. That’s 2.5% of the GDP.
  3. Electric vehicles release 54% fewer CO2 emissions into the atmosphere than even the newest gas-powered vehicles.
  4. There are 1.2 million electric vehicles in use in the United States today. There are expected to be 18.7 million by 2030.
  5. Under the new NAFTA, 75% or more of the components of American cars must be manufactured in the United States, Canada, or Mexico.
  6. Currently, vehicles assembled in the U.S. are made with about 40% to 50% of imported parts.
  7. Of the auto workers building those cars, 30% or more must earn $16 an hour. The number will increase to 40% in 2023.
  8. Automobile industry experts predict in 2023 and beyond, car subscriptions will become the most popular alternative to private ownership of autos. They see the car subscription programs having a 23.9% share, with car-sharing and ride-hailing making up only 1% each.
  9. The self-driving truck market globally is anticipated to be over $1,699 billion by 2025.
  10. About 50% of small businesses say that truck fleets will be completely self-driving in 20 years. More than 35% of them say it could happen in 10 years.

Originally posted by Linchpin https://linchpinseo.com/automotive-industry-trends/.

Auto Market Summary

Financial markets had a roller coaster ride last week, ending the week lower due to stronger-than-expected inflation data and consumer sentiment data indicating rising inflation expectations. Both suggest the Fed will raise rates as much as planned in November and December and possibly more.

The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report indicated headline inflation did not come down in September, and core inflation rose to a new 40-year high.

Retail sales in September were flat with August and were weaker than expected. Adjusted for inflation, spending declined in September from August but was unchanged year over year.

Consumer credit growth grew in August with heavier credit card usage. Auto loan performance has deteriorated further as both severe delinquency rates and default rates increased in September. While delinquency rates are very high, default rates remain relatively low. Auto loan credit loosened in September across all channels and lender types.

Sentiment increased slightly in the first half of October, according to the University of Michigan. However, inflation expectations are increasing, and the measure of future expectations declined.

September CPI Report Indicates Higher-Than-Expected Inflation, Core at 40-Year High

Inflation increased in September more than expected, according to the CPI. Headline year-over-year inflation was unchanged but remained lower than the peak in June.

The headline aggregate measure increased by 0.4% when a 0.2% increase was expected on a seasonally adjusted basis. The increase was an acceleration from the 0.1% increase in August.

The core CPI, which excludes Food and Energy, increased by 0.6% just as it did in August. A slowing to 0.4% had been expected. Energy declined again in September but at a smaller pace. Food and all other items saw similar aggregate gains.

Drilling down further, medical care and transportation saw the largest gains. Fuel oil, motor fuel, apparel, and used cars saw large declines. Rents saw another 0.8% increase, likely misleading and not reflecting current trends as the CPI methodology produces a severely lagged measure relative to real market activity.

Vehicle prices again moved in different directions in the CPI, finally reflecting what we have been seeing in the auto market, as new vehicles saw a 0.7% increase in September. Still, used vehicles saw a 1.1% decline.

The core CPI accelerated to a 6.7% increase on a year-over-year basis, a new 40-year high. The overall CPI year over year was unchanged at 8.2% but down from a peak of 9.0% in June.

The categories with the largest year-over-year increases in September were airline fares (43%), fuel oil (40%), piped gas utility (33%), butter (32%), and eggs (31%).

September Retail Sales Were Flat and Weaker than Expected

Retail sales in September were unchanged and weaker than expected, but August’s sales were revised higher. The initial estimate for September showed spending unchanged when an increase of 0.2% was expected.

The auto sector underperformed as sales excluding motor vehicles and parts increased by 0.1%, while sales of motor vehicles and parts declined by 0.4%. As gas prices declined for most of the month, spending at gas stations declined by 1.4%.

Categories saw mixed performance in September. Miscellaneous stores (-2.5%), furniture, home furnishing, electronics, and appliance stores (-0.7%), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores (-0.7%), and building material stores (- 0.4%) were also down. Clothing and accessories, non-store (e-commerce) retailers, and food services and drinking places were the largest gainers, each with growth of 0.5%.

Retail sales were up 8.2% year over year on a nominal basis. Only furniture, home furnishing, and electronics (-2.9%) were down compared to last year. The biggest year-over-year gainers were gas stations (+21%), non-store (+12%), and food services and drinking places (+11%).

Adjusted for inflation using the CPI, retail sales declined 0.4% for the month and were unchanged from a year ago.

Consumer Credit Card Growth Increases

The Federal Reserve reported that Consumer Credit, excluding housing-related debt, increased by $32.24 billion in August, accelerating from July’s $26.10 billion. Credit cards drove the acceleration in growth.

Auto loan performance in September deteriorated. Delinquencies of 60-plus days increased by 2.6% and were up 30.8% from a year ago. In September, 1.72% of auto loans were severely delinquent, rising from 1.65% in August and the highest rate since January 2010. Compared to a year ago, the severe delinquency rate was 44 basis points higher.

In September, 6.66% of subprime loans were severely delinquent, increasing from 6.38% in August. The subprime severe delinquency rate was 184 basis points higher than a year ago, and the September rate was the highest in the data series back to 2006.

Even though severe delinquencies are high and defaults increased in September, delinquencies are still not leading to pre-pandemic levels of defaults. Loan defaults increased 19.6% in September from August and were up 22.1% from a year ago. The annualized auto loan default rate in September was 2.24%, which remains below the 2.87% rate in September 2019. Auto credit access loosened in September.

Our Dealertrack Auto Credit Total Loan Index increased by 1.1%. Credit loosened across all loan channels and lender types in September, with new-vehicle loans loosening the most. Credit unions loosened the most across lenders.

Initial Consumer Sentiment Reading Mixed for October

The initial October reading on Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan increased by 2% to 59.8 from improving views of current conditions. However, inflation expectations are increasing, and the measure of future expectations declined. Consumers’ views of buying conditions for vehicles improved and were tied with March for the second-best reading this year. June was the all-time low in the reading.

Originally posted by Cox Automotive https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-october-17/.

COUNTERING THE COST-OF-LIVING CRISIS

Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades. The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability, and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy. Structural reforms can further support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints, while multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation.

This article was originally published by International Monetary Fund https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/10/11/world-economic-outlook-october-2022.

U.S. vehicle inventories at highest point since June 2021

Slowing sales helped inventory levels recover further to 1.32 million vehicles in September, a significant jump over where they were a year earlier but still historically low, according to Cox Automotive and the Automotive News Research & Data Center.

Cox said the figure — the highest since June 2021 — represented a 42-day supply, based on its practice of using the selling rate from the last 30 days.

It was nearly a half million vehicles higher than where inventory stood at the same point last year and about 90,000 higher than where it stood a month earlier.

But inventory remained more than 2 million vehicles down from the same month in 2019, before the pandemic.

Mass-market and luxury brand inventories collectively rose from the previous month, Cox said. Within individual segments, stocks of compact and midsize cars remained tight, along with minivans and electrified vehicles, while selections were best among full-size pickups and high-end luxury cars.

Among automakers still reporting monthly sales and inventory figures, five saw their days’ supply increase, with Ford Motor Co.’s climbing the most. Volvo’s figure stayed flat, and Toyota Motor North America declined slightly, according to the Automotive News Research & Data Center.

This article was originally published by Automotive News. https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/us-vehicle-inventories-highest-point-june-2021

Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda talks about why he isn’t all-in on EVs

CEO Akio Toyoda last week simply stated what he would like his legacy to be: “I love cars.”

Just how the 66-year-old racer, car enthusiast and company scion will be remembered regarding his approach to all-electric vehicles compared to gas-powered performance cars, like the Supra, or hybrids, like the once-groundbreaking Prius, will play out in the years to come.

Toyota, the world’s largest automaker, plans to invest $70 billion in electrified vehicles over the next nine years. Half of that will be for all-electric battery ones. While it’s a substantial investment in EVs, it’s smaller than some competitors’ plans, and not as much as some would like given Toyota’s global footprint.

Despite criticism from some investors and environmental groups, Toyoda this past week doubled down on his strategy to continue investing in a range of electrified vehicles as opposed to competitors such as Volkswagen and General Motors, which have said they are going all-in on all-electric vehicles.

The plans could arguably cement Toyoda’s “I love cars” legacy or tarnish it, depending on how quickly drivers adopt electric vehicles.

“For me, playing to win also means doing things differently. Doing things that others may question, but that we believe will put us in the winner’s circle the longest,” he said Wednesday during Toyota’s annual dealer meeting in Las Vegas, which, by the way, was called “Playing to Win.”

Toyoda, who described Toyota as a large department store, said the company’s goal “remains the same, pleasing the widest possible range of customers with the widest possible range of powertrains.” Those powertrains will include hybrids and plug-in hybrids like the Prius, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles like the Mirai and 15 all-electric battery models by 2025.

Aside from the EV plans, Toyoda discussed several other aspects of the company’s business last week during the dealer meeting and a small roundtable with U.S. media.

EV regulations and materials

Toyoda reiterated that he does not believe all-electric vehicles will be adopted as quickly as policy regulators and competitors think, due to a variety of reasons. He cited lack of infrastructure, pricing and how customers’ choices vary region to region as examples of possible roadblocks.

He believes it will be “difficult” to fulfill recent regulations that call for banning traditional vehicles with internal combustion engines by 2035, like California and New York have said they will adopt.

“Just like the fully autonomous cars that we are all supposed to be driving by now, EVs are just going to take longer to become mainstream than media would like us to believe,” Toyoda said in a recording of the remarks to dealers shown to reporters. “In the meantime, you have many options for customers.”

Toyoda also believes there will be “tremendous shortages” of lithium and battery grade nickel in the next five to 10 years, leading to production and supply chain problems.

Carbon neutrality

Toyota’s goal is carbon neutrality by 2050, and not just through all-electric vehicles. Some have questioned the environmental impact of EVs when factoring in raw material mining and overall vehicle production.

Since the Prius launched in 1997, Toyota says it has sold more than 20 million electrified vehicles worldwide. The company says those sales have avoided 160 million tons of CO2 emissions, which is the equivalent to the impact of 5.5 million all-electric battery vehicles.

“Toyota can produce eight 40-mile plug-in hybrids for every one 320-mile battery electric vehicle and save up to eight times the carbon emitted into the atmosphere,” according to prepared remarks for Toyoda provided to media.

Toyota’s hesitancy to launch all-electric vehicles has been criticized by environmental groups such as the Sierra Club and Greenpeace, which ranked the Japanese automaker at the bottom of its auto-industry decarbonization rankings the past two years.

Standing pat with dealers

Toyota has no plans to overhaul its franchised dealership network as it invests in electrified vehicles, like some competitors have announced.

“I know you are anxious about the future. I know you are worried about how this business will change. While I can’t predict the future, I can promise you this: You, me, us, this business, this franchised model is not going anywhere. It’s staying just as it is,” he told dealers to resounding applause.

The franchised dealer model has been under pressure after Tesla and newer EV startups began selling directly to consumers than rather through traditional dealers.

GM has offered buyouts to Buick and Cadillac dealers that don’t want to invest in EVs, while Ford last month announced dealers that want to sell EVs must become certified under one of two programs — with investments of $500,000 or $1.2 million. 

‘Happy dance’

As part of lighthearted and comedic comments to dealers, Toyoda said he danced when the automaker outsold GM last year for the first time ever in the U.S.

Despite Toyota executives saying the accomplishment wasn’t sustainable — GM led through the first half of this year — Toyoda still felt it was cause for celebration.

“At Toyota, we like to keep our head down and not talk about our success,” Toyoda said before reenacting the dance on stage. “But when I heard you became No. 1 in the U.S. last year, I actually did a little happy dance in my office.”

Article originally posted to CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/02/toyota-ceo-akio-toyoda-electric-vehicles-happy-dance.html.