More Trade-Ins Under Water

Trade-in vehicles in negative equity are at a two-year high, according to Edmunds data.

Of those traded in the fourth quarter for new-vehicle purchases, 20.4% were in negative equity, up from about 18% a year earlier and 15% two years earlier, Edmunds says.

The average debt level of borrowers in negative equity situations, meanwhile, climbed from $5,347 in the fourth quarter of 2022 to a record $6,064, which is up 46% from two years earlier.

Edmunds said that with renewed new-vehicle sales due to replenished inventories and the return of incentives, used-vehicle transactions have in turn cooled.

“With demand for near-new vehicles on the decline, used car values are depreciating similarly to the way they did before the pandemic, and negative equity is rearing its ugly head,” said Director of Insights Ivan Drury in a press release.

Consumers who paid more than manufacturer’s suggested retail prices during the pandemic are the most vulnerable to going under water because their newer trade-in models are most prone to big value declines.

The average transaction price of 1-year-old vehicles fell 15% in the quarter to $38,720, Edmunds said. ATP of 2-year-old models fell 9% to $32,583.

It’s the reverse of the pandemic scenario of scarce used vehicles due to supply constraints’ effect on new-vehicle production.

“During the last few years, consumers could jump into new car loans and their trade-ins were shielded from negative equity because some dealers, desperate for used inventory, were willing to pay near original purchase prices,” Drury said. “These days, consumers need to be more careful — especially if they’re trading in newer vehicles — because near-new cars are being hit the hardest by depreciation.”

Originally posted in F&I Showroom. https://www.fi-magazine.com/373319/more-trade-ins-under-water

2024 Forecast Reveals RV Industry Set for Significant Growth: Shipments Projected to Hit 350,000

The RV industry is poised for significant growth in 2024, with wholesale shipments forecasted to reach 350,000 units. This projection comes from the Spring 2024 issue of RV RoadSigns, a quarterly forecast prepared by ITR Economics for the RV Industry Association (RVIA). 

“RV shipments are trending in the positive direction and on track for the moderate gains ITR Economics is forecasting in this latest report,” RVIA President & CEO Craig Kirby said in a News & Insights report of the association.

The anticipated range of RV shipments for 2024 is between 334,700 to 365,500 units, centering around a median total of 350,100 units. Such figures suggest an increase of 8.8 to 18.8 percent over the 2023 year-end total of 313,200 units, indicating a robust recovery and expansion within the sector.

“Our data shows a continued desire from consumers to purchase RVs and experience the joys and benefits of the RV lifestyle. We are hopeful that the expected decreases in interest rates and inflation this year will allow more consumers to follow through with their desire to purchase RVs,” Kirby added.

The report identifies several economic indicators that support the optimistic forecast for RV shipments. Notably, housing starts, which historically correlate with RV shipments, are expected to rise in 2024. 

Additionally, the expectation of lower interest rates could make RV financing more accessible to potential buyers. The combination of receding inflation and increasing incomes is also expected to create a more conducive environment for the purchase of discretionary items like RVs.

Members of the RV Industry Association have the opportunity to gain further insights into the forecast through a webinar hosted by ITR Economics. Scheduled for Thursday, March 14, at 1 pm Eastern, this webinar aims to provide an in-depth explanation of the forecast, allowing industry stakeholders to better understand the factors driving the anticipated growth.

The RV Industry Association’s efforts to provide detailed insights and forecasts through publications like RV RoadSigns and events such as the upcoming webinar with ITR Economics play a crucial role in supporting the industry’s stakeholders. For more information about the RV Industry Association, click here.

Article originally published by Modern Campground https://moderncampground.com/usa/2024-forecast-reveals-rv-industry-set-for-significant-growth-shipments-projected-to-hit-350000/

Viewpoint: Is IRS Abusing its Authority in Micro-Captives Investigations?

A pair of federal Tax Court decisions at the start of 2024 are painting a concerning picture that the IRS is abusing its authority and attempting to become a quasi-federal governing agency over the insurance industry. The IRS secured a pair of victories against a form of self-insurance for small businesses known as micro-captive insurance. The cases—Keating v. Commissioner and Swift v. Commissioner—used biased fact patterns to support the unfounded principle that all micro-captives are tax shelters or tax schemes.

Neither decision provided guidance nor clarification of how honest micro-captive owners should structure their captive arrangements to remain compliant with IRS regulations. Without such guidance, small to mid-size business owners are subject to open scrutiny at the whim of a federal agency attempting to seize regulatory control of an industry already regulated at the state level.

These victories are contrary to why the 831(b) tax code was written. Similar to what we are seeing today, this code was originally written during a time in which Americans were saddled by a hardened insurance market. Originally passed in the 1980s, Section 831(b) was designed to empower small to mid-sized insurance companies by excluding part of their income from taxation, allowing them to better compete with larger insurance providers and provide a vehicle of self-insurance against risks that may not be covered by insurance companies.

The 2015 Protecting Americans from Tax Hikes Act states that companies are eligible for this type of risk mitigation under Section 831(b) of the tax code when the owner of an insured business holds an interest in the insurer no greater than their interest in the business.

In January, IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel disclosed that nearly 1,100 micro-captives are under IRS investigation. Business owners and plan administrators who are caught up in these audits are then sifted through, with the IRS seeking only cases in which wins are virtually guaranteed. Instead of providing a conclusive determination for other taxpayers who can legitimately benefit from using an 831(b), the IRS uses its ambiguous scrutiny as a deterrent from using these plans, which in some cases can provide a lifeline to small to mid-size businesses.

The IRS has made clear its dislike of micro-captives and is working to eliminate them through its overreach of power and intimidation. This gross misuse by a bureaucratic agency directly contradicts congressional support for the existence of micro-captive insurance. To put it bluntly, the IRS is undermining the laws passed by our nation’s elected representatives and wants to put insurance regulation in the hands of the federal government.

In December, multiple members of the U.S. House Committee on Ways and Means Committee wrote to Werfel to express their disdain about the IRS’s treatment of micro-captives. The members of Congress called for the IRS to work with the insurance industry to develop a mutually agreeable path forward for small to mid-size businesses to utilize this section of the tax code without fear of retribution from the IRS.

The decision in Keating is concerning. In fact, the judge alluded to how the courts believed insurance companies should be regulated.

The McCarran-Ferguson Act of 1945 provides the framework for how the insurance industry is regulated in the U.S.— the federal government can define insurance for federal tax purposes but is prohibited from overreaching into the regulation of insurance, which is instead left to the individual states.

Without action from Congress, or the IRS backing off its assault on our industry, the overreach of power toward micro-captive owners will likely continue, along with its efforts to eventually obtain federal oversight over other parts of the insurance business. The question of overreach by the IRS isn’t a question of if it will stop, but rather a question of when and how. The ripple effects will have far greater implications on the insurance industry as a whole than anything else that may come of this IRS case.

Van Carlson is founder and CEO of SRA 831(b) Admin. He has more than 25 years of experience in the risk management industry and started his career with Farmers Insurance Group.

Article originally published by Insurance Journal https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/2024/03/27/766616.htm

Kansas car dealer indicted for rolling back odometers as cases surge nationwide

A Kansas businessman who was indicted Monday on charges connected to altering vehicle odometers is the latest case of odometer fraud in the United States, a crime that costs American car buyers more than $1 billion annually, according to federal authorities.

Adam Newbrey, 31, of Derby, Kansas, was charged with 27 counts of criminal misconduct, including odometer tampering, aggravated identity theft, and mail fraud, among other charges, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Kansas said in a news release. According to prosecutors, he allegedly purchased used vehicles in Kansas and Oklahoma, and altered the odometers in 2020 and 2021.

Newbrey then used fraudulent documents to obtain vehicle titles from the Kansas Department of Revenue that reflected the falsified odometer readings, prosecutors claim. He is also accused of using the titles with the misrepresented mileage to defraud car buyers.

According to court documents, Newbrey operated three used car dealerships in Wichita: iDeal Motors, Midwest Wholesale, and Prestige Motors. In 2022, iDeal Motors was banned from legally selling cars in Kansas and was fined more than $159,000 following an investigation into consumer complaints about the dealership, KWCH reported.

Odometer fraud across the country is rising each year, according to data firm Carfax. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimates that more than 450,000 vehicles are sold each year with false odometer readings causing consumers to lose over $1 billion annually.

Digital odometers make rollback scams easier

There is a misconception that odometer fraud has declined with digital odometers, according to Carfax research. Recent data suggests that more than 2.1 million vehicles were identified with rolled-back odometers in 2023, a 7% increase from the previous year and up 14% since 2021.

Before modern vehicles, odometers were rolled back manually on a mechanical instrument. But “odometers have since become digital, with the last round of mechanical odometers hitting the road in the early 2000s,” according to Carfax. Now, digital odometers can be rolled-back by removing a car’s circuit board or using equipment that fastens into the vehicle’s electronic circuit.

“Odometer fraud didn’t go away with the introduction of digital odometers,” Patrick Olsen, editor-in-chief at Carfax, said in a statement last December. “We’re still seeing the number of vehicles on the road with a rolled-back odometer rise year-over-year. It takes con artists only a matter of minutes to wipe thousands and thousands of miles off a vehicle’s odometer.”

Typically, higher mileage leads to depreciation in the value of vehicles. Fraudsters tamper with vehicle odometers to rollback the number of miles, deceiving buyers into thinking the car has a lower mileage and a higher purchase price.

As of February, the average used-vehicle listing price was $25,328 — down 4% from a year earlier — according to Cox Automotive. “Though used-vehicle prices are lower now versus 2022 and 2023, they remain much higher than in 2019,” Cox Automotive said in an article.

According to Carfax data, consumers lose an average of $4,000 yearly in rollback scams, which doesn’t include unexpected maintenance and repair costs.

California, Texas, and New York are among states with most rolled-back odometers

Last year, Carfax research found 10 states nationwide with the most cars with rolled-back odometers. Nine of the states saw a rise in rollback scams, while only one remained unchanged:

  1. California: 469,000, up 7.2%
  2. Texas: 277,000, up 12.8%
  3. New York: 100,000, up 9.0%
  4. Florida: 85,400, up 1.4%
  5. Illinois: 79,000, up 7.6%
  6. Pennsylvania: 69,600, up 2.1%
  7. Georgia: 67,600, up 4.0%
  8. Arizona: 57,000, up 4.8%
  9. Virginia: 56,000, unchanged
  10. North Carolina: 49,000, up 8.2%

How to protect yourself from rollback scams

Industry experts say odometer rollback fraud can easily be avoided. Experts recommend examining the vehicle and asking the seller questions about the car’s condition, including the odometer reading.

“If the car shows low mileage but has a lot of wear on the seats, pedals, tires, and steering wheel, that may be a sign that something is amiss,” according to Capital One Auto Navigator.

Capital One and Carfax also recommend the following tips to avoid rollback scams:

  • Check the car’s history report. Copies can be obtained from websites such as Carfax and AutoCheck.
  • Review vehicle documents, including the vehicle’s original title, which will show the car’s mileage at the time the title was created. Maintenance and repair records can also show mileage numbers.
  • Take the car to a mechanic to inspect its condition before buying

Anyone who suspects a seller committed fraud by rolling back the car’s odometer is advised to contact a state enforcement agency. Agencies that investigate odometer rollback cases differ from state to state, according to Carfax.

Article originally published by USA Today https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/03/18/car-dealer-indicted-rollback-odometer-fraud/73023396007/

April Newsletter

Spring has Sprung! This is our favorite time of year and not just because of the great April Fool’s pranks! It is our favorite because the weather changes, the return of baseball , The Masters tournament and it’s the unofficial start of our favorite season of all, Selling Season! 

Auto, Powersports and RV dealers all get excited for this time of year as customers get their tax refunds and head to their local dealership to indulge in a new purchase. Although there was a somewhat flat start to the year, optimism continues to build as more and more consumers are acclimating to the new norms of vehicle prices, interest rates, etc. 

Our markets have changed drastically over the last few years, and we are finding more and more dealers looking for ways to stay ahead of the curve, maintain COVID level profitability and maximize each transaction with as many products and profit as possible. 

At ADS, we pride ourselves on providing holistic solutions for dealers. Whether it be a dealer looking to mitigate the impending negative equity monsoon (see info and video below), a dealer looking to maximize their marketing and customer data spend (https://clientcommand.com/), a dealer looking to right size their reinsurance position after seeing a spike in loss ratio or a dealer looking to provide their sales staff an extra boost with some training and development solutions (see below for course registration), we at ADS have you covered. 

Of course, this in all in addition to our high-performance F&I training and development platform that we have been deploying and perfecting over the past 10-years. 

If you are a dealer who wants ‘More in ‘24’, then reach out to us to see if we are potentially a fit for what you are looking for. 

To view the full newsletter visit https://mailchi.mp/advdealer.com/april-newsletter-7ms0opj48u

Study Expects Auto Industry To Work Harder To Maintain Profits In 2024

The U.S. auto industry is entering a “new normal” where automakers and dealers will labor harder to maintain profits, a report by Dave Cantin Group and Kaiser Associates says.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, supplies of vehicles on dealer lots fell. That meant higher vehicle prices and increased margins for automakers and dealers.

That is likely to shift this year, according to the report.

“The U.S. automotive industry has had an exceptional last few years,” the report said. “Indeed over the past 3+ years it seems like everyone won – everyone, that is, except the consumer (who has paid higher prices for fewer choices, longer lead times and more competition to get a vehicle at all.)”

In 2024, industry’s new normal “won’t look quite as attractive as it did in 2023, but better than it did (for manufacturers and dealerships) in 2019,” the report said.

Dave Cantin Group and Kaiser conducted interviews with industry analysts and executives as well as surveying more than 1,000 consumers.

Among the factors cited by the report as having an impact on the industry:

—“The economic climate in the U.S. is healthier than predicted going into 2024 – but a positive macro economic climate increases the complexity facing the industry.”

Interest rates may begin to decline later this year after efforts by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation. In turn, dealers may need to boost inventory and increase advertising spending, according to the report.

“Dealerships should expect to work harder to maintain profitability in 2024,” the report said.

At the same time, declining interest rates “are likely to unlock pent-up demand, resulting in greater vehicle sales.”

—Consumers surveyed are more likely than ever to buy SUVs. Of respondents, 44% said they want an SUV for their next vehicle.

“Consumers may be moving toward SUVs because of reliability, versatility, and safety, despite higher price tags,” the report said. “This shift may also align with brand preference: some of the brands consumers are most likely to buy are primarily known for SUVs.”

Automakers, including General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co., Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co. have retired car models over the past several years. Ford, for example, said in an April 2018 earnings announcement, that 90% of its North American vehicle fleet would be trucks, SUVs and commercial vehicles by 2020.

The report said increased SUV deliveries will mean higher revenues and profits, according to the report.

—International situations such as U.S.-China tensions and Middle East conflicts could still disrupt the industry. “Geopolitical conflicts could drive a U-turn on consumer sentiment” and lower the willingness of automakers “to make strategic investments,” the report said.

Article by Bill Koenig published by Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/billkoenig/2024/02/26/study-expects-auto-industry-to-work-harder-to-maintain-profits-in-2024/?sh=15255fcb433f

March Newsletter

Welcome to March, everyone! Let’s all hope it comes in and goes out like a lion in terms of sales!

This year’s NADA was fantastic for the ADS leadership team. It was the busiest, most productive, and most enjoyable NADA we can recall. Despite some of the negative outlook for our industries’ sales this year, the overall sentiment was positive, and downright palpable.

We met with many of our valued vendor partners and found time to break some bread with a few of our cherished dealer partners. While in our meetings, we were introduced to several new and exciting programs, and we are excited to roll out to our dealer network in the coming months.

While at NADA we heard dealers talk of ‘cutting back’ on expenses, or ‘trimming the fat’. One of our takeaways from the convention is that there is room to improve on efficiencies and profitability in the stores. When working with the right partners, there are several ways to grow sales, F&I profitability, service retention, and reinsurance results with minimal time investment. Are you ready to investigate a better way of doing business? Give us a call to learn more about how ADS can help you recapture some of those lost profits.  

In the next couple of months, the team at ADS will be hard at work putting together and hosting a couple of first-class sales and sales management training classes. Be sure to subscribe to our LinkedIn page as well as our YouTube channel to stay up to date with all things ADS.

Also, ADS has officially entered the risk management business and we are currently providing competitive quotes for dealers on their commercial insurance needs. We are deploying the same truly independent, dealer-first mindset when it comes to preparing the proper package of coverages and premiums. Reach out to your ADS representative to learn more. 

To view the full newsletter https://mailchi.mp/advdealer.com/march-newsletter-aswoa5ppxr

The Science of Leap Year

What do the years 2020, 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040, and 2044 have in common? They’re Presidential election years in the U.S., the summer Olympics are scheduled to occur, and they’re Leap Years, when February gets an extra day and is 29 days long.

But why? The reasoning behind it is a little complicated. For example, most people believe that leap year occurs once every four years, but that’s not always the case.

Why do we have leap year? 

A calendar year is typically 365 days long. These so called “common years” loosely define the number of days it takes the Earth to complete one orbit around the Sun. But 365 is actually a rounded number. It takes Earth 365.242190 days to orbit the Sun, or 365 days 5 hours 48 minutes and 56 seconds. This “sidereal” year is slightly longer than the calendar year, and that extra 5 hours 48 minutes and 56 seconds needs to be accounted for somehow. If we didn’t account for this extra time, the seasons would begin to drift. This would be annoying if not devasting, because over a period of about 700 years our summers, which we’ve come to expect in June in the northern hemisphere, would begin to occur in December! 

By adding an extra day every four years, our calendar years stay adjusted to the sidereal year, but that’s not quite right either.

Why aren’t leap years always every four years?

Some simple math will show that over four years the difference between the calendar years and the sidereal year is not exactly 24 hours. Instead, it’s 23.262222 hours. Rounding strikes again! By adding a leap day every four years, we actually make the calendar longer by over 44 minutes. Over time, these extra 44+ minutes would also cause the seasons to drift in our calendar. For this reason, not every four years is a leap year.  The rule is that if the year is divisible by 100 and not divisible by 400, leap year is skipped. The year 2000 was a leap year, for example, but the years 1700, 1800, and 1900 were not.  The next time a leap year will be skipped is the year 2100.

Why is it called “leap year”?

Well, a common year is 52 weeks and 1 day long.  That means that if your birthday were to occur on a Monday one year, the next year it should occur on a Tuesday. However, the addition of an extra day during a leap year means that your birthday now “leaps” over a day.  Instead of your birthday occurring on a Tuesday as it would following a common year, during a leap year, your birthday “leaps” over Tuesday and will now occur on a Wednesday.  

And if you happen to be born on leap day February 29, that doesn’t mean you only celebrate a birthday every four years. On years without leap days, you get to celebrate your birthday on March 1 and continue to grow old like the rest of us.

Thanks to leap year, our seasons will always occur when we expect them to occur, and our calendar year will match the Earth’s sidereal year.  

Original posting by Bob Craddock for the National Air and Space Museum https://airandspace.si.edu/stories/editorial/science-leap-year.

History of Mardi Gras

When Is Mardi Gras? 

Mardi Gras is traditionally celebrated on “Fat Tuesday,” the Tuesday before Ash Wednesday and the start of Lent.  In many areas, however, Mardi Gras has evolved into a week-long festival. 

Mardi Gras 2024 will fall on Tuesday, February 13.

What Is Mardi Gras?

Mardi Gras is a tradition that dates back thousands of years to pagan celebrations of spring and fertility, including the raucous Roman festivals of Saturnalia and Lupercalia.

When Christianity arrived in Rome, religious leaders decided to incorporate these popular local traditions into the new faith, an easier task than abolishing them altogether. As a result, the excess and debauchery of the Mardi Gras season became a prelude to Lent, the 40 days of fasting and penance between Ash Wednesday and Easter Sunday.

Along with Christianity, Mardi Gras spread from Rome to other European countries, including France, Germany, Spain and England.

What Does Mardi Gras Mean?

Mardi is the French word for Tuesday, and gras means “fat.” In France, the day before Ash Wednesday came to be known as Mardi Gras, or “Fat Tuesday.”

Traditionally, in the days leading up to Lent, merrymakers would binge on all the rich, fatty foods—meat, eggs, milk, lard and cheese—that remained in their homes, in anticipation of several weeks of eating only fish and different types of fasting.

The word carnival, another common name for the pre-Lenten festivities, also derives from this feasting tradition: in Medieval Latin, carnelevarium means to take away or remove meat, from the Latin carnem for meat.

New Orleans Mardi Gras

The first American Mardi Gras took place on March 3, 1699, when French explorers Pierre Le Moyne d’Iberville and Sieur de Bienville landed near present-day New Orleans, Louisiana. They held a small celebration and dubbed their landing spot Point du Mardi Gras. (Some argue the port city of Mobile, Alabama was actually the first to observe the event.)

In the decades that followed, New Orleans and other French settlements began marking the holiday with street parties, masked balls and lavish dinners. When the Spanish took control of New Orleans, however, they abolished these rowdy rituals, and the bans remained in force until Louisiana became a U.S. state in 1812.

On Mardi Gras in 1827, a group of students donned colorful costumes and danced through the streets of New Orleans, emulating the revelry they’d observed while visiting Paris. Ten years later, the first recorded New Orleans Mardi Gras parade took place, a tradition that continues to this day.

In 1857, a secret society of New Orleans businessmen called the Mistick Krewe of Comus organized a torch-lit Mardi Gras procession with marching bands and rolling floats, setting the tone for future public celebrations in the city.

Since then, krewes have remained a fixture of the Carnival scene throughout Louisiana. Other lasting customs include throwing beads and other trinkets, wearing masks, decorating floats and eating King Cake.

Did you know? Rex, one of the oldest Mardi Gras krewes, has been participating in parades since 1872 and established purple, gold and green as the iconic Mardi Gras colors.

Louisiana is the only state in which Mardi Gras is a legal holiday. However, elaborate carnival festivities draw crowds in other parts of the United States during the Mardi Gras season as well, including Alabama and Mississippi. Each region has its own events and traditions.

Mardi Gras Around the World

Across the globe, pre-Lenten festivals continue to take place in many countries with significant Roman Catholic populations.

Brazil’s weeklong Carnival festivities feature a vibrant amalgam of European, African and native traditions. In Canada, Quebec City hosts the giant Quebec Winter Carnival. In Italy, tourists flock to Venice’s Carnevale, which dates back to the 13th century and is famous for its masquerade balls.

Known as Karneval, Fastnacht or Fasching, the German celebration includes parades, costume balls and a tradition that empowers women to cut off men’s ties. For Denmark’s Fastevlan, children dress up and gather candy in a similar manner to Halloween—although the parallel ends when they ritually flog their parents on Easter Sunday morning.

Article provided by History.com https://www.history.com/topics/holidays/mardi-gras.

February Newsletter

As this newsletter is being delivered, the ADS leadership team will be at NADA in Las Vegas. This year’s show is sure to be jammed packed with great meetings, time with some of our valued dealer clients, as well as meeting many new dealers interested in improving their F&I sales process and results.

It was two years ago when NADA was last in Las Vegas. During that show, EV’s were ALL the rage! There was so much talk and hype about EV’s and the demise of the ICE vehicles. It was the FUTURE, or that is what they wanted you to believe.

At that time, we published an article on our skepticism of the prognosticators certainty around the adoption rate of the BEV’s. This was met with some negativity when it came out, but we must remember that two years ago there were months’ worth of backorders for anything electric, so it was only fair to receive some criticism over our cautionary approach.

Now here we are entering another industry event and another manufacturer (Volvo) just pulled back funding on their EV program – much to the pleasure of Wall Street, as their stock surged 20% on the news.

So how did we go from all the rage to a mere footnote in just two years? Is it because the demand was artificial, the talking head CEOs were making statements to appease their investor base, or have we now had two years of real world experience to prove out a lot of the concerns we pointed out. Most likely, it is a combination of all the above.

Let’s be clear, there is a place for EV’s and there is some demand for them, but it is not NEAR what we were being led to believe. The EV market will continue to grow and may even see some significant growth (due to its relatively small market share currently), but the ICE based vehicles that have powered this country for over a century, may just be around for another century…

We hope everyone has a tremendous NADA show.

Events we will be attending:

NADA 2024 – https://www.nada.org/nada-show
Cleveland Auto Show – https://www.clevelandautoshow.com/

Good luck and Good Selling!

Sincerely, 
Bob and Ryan

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