What do the years 2020, 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040, and 2044 have in common? They’re Presidential election years in the U.S., the summer Olympics are scheduled to occur, and they’re Leap Years, when February gets an extra day and is 29 days long.
But why? The reasoning behind it is a little complicated. For example, most people believe that leap year occurs once every four years, but that’s not always the case.
Why do we have leap year?
A calendar year is typically 365 days long. These so called “common years” loosely define the number of days it takes the Earth to complete one orbit around the Sun. But 365 is actually a rounded number. It takes Earth 365.242190 days to orbit the Sun, or 365 days 5 hours 48 minutes and 56 seconds. This “sidereal” year is slightly longer than the calendar year, and that extra 5 hours 48 minutes and 56 seconds needs to be accounted for somehow. If we didn’t account for this extra time, the seasons would begin to drift. This would be annoying if not devasting, because over a period of about 700 years our summers, which we’ve come to expect in June in the northern hemisphere, would begin to occur in December!
By adding an extra day every four years, our calendar years stay adjusted to the sidereal year, but that’s not quite right either.
Why aren’t leap years always every four years?
Some simple math will show that over four years the difference between the calendar years and the sidereal year is not exactly 24 hours. Instead, it’s 23.262222 hours. Rounding strikes again! By adding a leap day every four years, we actually make the calendar longer by over 44 minutes. Over time, these extra 44+ minutes would also cause the seasons to drift in our calendar. For this reason, not every four years is a leap year. The rule is that if the year is divisible by 100 and not divisible by 400, leap year is skipped. The year 2000 was a leap year, for example, but the years 1700, 1800, and 1900 were not. The next time a leap year will be skipped is the year 2100.
Why is it called “leap year”?
Well, a common year is 52 weeks and 1 day long. That means that if your birthday were to occur on a Monday one year, the next year it should occur on a Tuesday. However, the addition of an extra day during a leap year means that your birthday now “leaps” over a day. Instead of your birthday occurring on a Tuesday as it would following a common year, during a leap year, your birthday “leaps” over Tuesday and will now occur on a Wednesday.
And if you happen to be born on leap day February 29, that doesn’t mean you only celebrate a birthday every four years. On years without leap days, you get to celebrate your birthday on March 1 and continue to grow old like the rest of us.
Thanks to leap year, our seasons will always occur when we expect them to occur, and our calendar year will match the Earth’s sidereal year.
Original posting by Bob Craddock for the National Air and Space Museum https://airandspace.si.edu/stories/editorial/science-leap-year.
Mardi Gras is traditionally celebrated on “Fat Tuesday,” the Tuesday before Ash Wednesday and the start of Lent. In many areas, however, Mardi Gras has evolved into a week-long festival.
Mardi Gras 2024 will fall on Tuesday, February 13.
What Is Mardi Gras?
Mardi Gras is a tradition that dates back thousands of years to pagan celebrations of spring and fertility, including the raucous Roman festivals of Saturnalia and Lupercalia.
When Christianity arrived in Rome, religious leaders decided to incorporate these popular local traditions into the new faith, an easier task than abolishing them altogether. As a result, the excess and debauchery of the Mardi Gras season became a prelude to Lent, the 40 days of fasting and penance between Ash Wednesday and Easter Sunday.
Along with Christianity, Mardi Gras spread from Rome to other European countries, including France, Germany, Spain and England.
What Does Mardi Gras Mean?
Mardi is the French word for Tuesday, and gras means “fat.” In France, the day before Ash Wednesday came to be known as Mardi Gras, or “Fat Tuesday.”
Traditionally, in the days leading up to Lent, merrymakers would binge on all the rich, fatty foods—meat, eggs, milk, lard and cheese—that remained in their homes, in anticipation of several weeks of eating only fish and different types of fasting.
The word carnival, another common name for the pre-Lenten festivities, also derives from this feasting tradition: in Medieval Latin, carnelevarium means to take away or remove meat, from the Latin carnem for meat.
New Orleans Mardi Gras
The first American Mardi Gras took place on March 3, 1699, when French explorers Pierre Le Moyne d’Iberville and Sieur de Bienville landed near present-day New Orleans, Louisiana. They held a small celebration and dubbed their landing spot Point du Mardi Gras. (Some argue the port city of Mobile, Alabama was actually the first to observe the event.)
In the decades that followed, New Orleans and other French settlements began marking the holiday with street parties, masked balls and lavish dinners. When the Spanish took control of New Orleans, however, they abolished these rowdy rituals, and the bans remained in force until Louisiana became a U.S. state in 1812.
On Mardi Gras in 1827, a group of students donned colorful costumes and danced through the streets of New Orleans, emulating the revelry they’d observed while visiting Paris. Ten years later, the first recorded New Orleans Mardi Gras parade took place, a tradition that continues to this day.
In 1857, a secret society of New Orleans businessmen called the Mistick Krewe of Comus organized a torch-lit Mardi Gras procession with marching bands and rolling floats, setting the tone for future public celebrations in the city.
Since then, krewes have remained a fixture of the Carnival scene throughout Louisiana. Other lasting customs include throwing beads and other trinkets, wearing masks, decorating floats and eating King Cake.
Did you know? Rex, one of the oldest Mardi Gras krewes, has been participating in parades since 1872 and established purple, gold and green as the iconic Mardi Gras colors.
Louisiana is the only state in which Mardi Gras is a legal holiday. However, elaborate carnival festivities draw crowds in other parts of the United States during the Mardi Gras season as well, including Alabama and Mississippi. Each region has its own events and traditions.
Mardi Gras Around the World
Across the globe, pre-Lenten festivals continue to take place in many countries with significant Roman Catholic populations.
Brazil’s weeklong Carnival festivities feature a vibrant amalgam of European, African and native traditions. In Canada, Quebec City hosts the giant Quebec Winter Carnival. In Italy, tourists flock to Venice’s Carnevale, which dates back to the 13th century and is famous for its masquerade balls.
Known as Karneval, Fastnacht or Fasching, the German celebration includes parades, costume balls and a tradition that empowers women to cut off men’s ties. For Denmark’s Fastevlan, children dress up and gather candy in a similar manner to Halloween—although the parallel ends when they ritually flog their parents on Easter Sunday morning.
As this newsletter is being delivered, the ADS leadership team will be at NADA in Las Vegas. This year’s show is sure to be jammed packed with great meetings, time with some of our valued dealer clients, as well as meeting many new dealers interested in improving their F&I sales process and results.
It was two years ago when NADA was last in Las Vegas. During that show, EV’s were ALL the rage! There was so much talk and hype about EV’s and the demise of the ICE vehicles. It was the FUTURE, or that is what they wanted you to believe.
At that time, we published an article on our skepticism of the prognosticators certainty around the adoption rate of the BEV’s. This was met with some negativity when it came out, but we must remember that two years ago there were months’ worth of backorders for anything electric, so it was only fair to receive some criticism over our cautionary approach.
Now here we are entering another industry event and another manufacturer (Volvo) just pulled back funding on their EV program – much to the pleasure of Wall Street, as their stock surged 20% on the news.
So how did we go from all the rage to a mere footnote in just two years? Is it because the demand was artificial, the talking head CEOs were making statements to appease their investor base, or have we now had two years of real world experience to prove out a lot of the concerns we pointed out. Most likely, it is a combination of all the above.
Let’s be clear, there is a place for EV’s and there is some demand for them, but it is not NEAR what we were being led to believe. The EV market will continue to grow and may even see some significant growth (due to its relatively small market share currently), but the ICE based vehicles that have powered this country for over a century, may just be around for another century…
Richfield, Ohio – Advanced Dealer Solutions is proud to welcome Dave Ditgen as Managing Partner.
Dave has over two-decades of experience working with auto, RV and powersports dealers with their risk management programs and improving their F&I performance.
“Dave’s experience as a producer and regional sales manager for a large P&C and F&I provider make him an ideal Managing Partner for us.”– says Bob Mancuso – President of Advanced Dealer Solutions.
“I have known the leaders of Advanced Dealer Solutions for years and am excited about the opportunity to work and grow with them as well as build out a robust independent P&C offering.” – Dave Ditgen
“We are thrilled to have Dave and his vast P&C knowledge as part of ADS. We look forward to introducing him to our current dealers where he will help them evaluate their risk management programs and insurance needs.” – says Ryan Nelson – EVP of Advanced Dealer Solutions. Ryan went on to say, “We know dealers need a truly independent voice, not just in F&I, but also in P&C offerings and we are confident Dave will be that independent voice helping dealers place their insurance needs”.
Dave is based in Denver, CO and will be focused on building out ADS’ risk management and P&C services nationwide as well as continuing to grow ADS’ F&I development business.
Advanced Dealer Solutions is a full service, dealer development agency focused on automotive, RV, and powersports dealers across the United States. Please contact 844-320-3722 or [email protected] for any inquiries.
Richfield, Ohio – Advanced Dealer Solutions is proud to welcome Brandon Kerns as Director of Dealer Services.
Brandon has extensive experience in the automotive business ranging from F&I manager, controller, P&C producer, income development training and working with a floor plan provider.
“Brandon’s experience as a controller will be beneficial to dealers as he works with them to maximize their P&L’s by increasing sales, F&I production and reducing wasteful marketing spend.”– says Bob Mancuso – President of Advanced Dealer Solutions.
“I am excited about being able to provide dealers so many leading programs and services all with an unbiased approach and to have the world-class team at ADS supporting me.” – Brandon Kerns
“Having Brandon and his unique skillset gives our dealers another great resource to utilize as part of doing business with ADS.” – says Ryan Nelson – EVP of Advanced Dealer Solutions. Ryan went on to say, “Brandon’s attention to detail, his understanding of reinsurance and his knowledge of how stores operate, make him an ideal fit for ADS”.
Brandon is based in Denver, CO and will help support the growth of the ADS income development platform throughout the western states.
Advanced Dealer Solutions is a full-service dealer development agency focused on automotive, RV, and powersports dealers across the United States. Please contact 844-320-3722 or [email protected] for any inquiries.
Richfield, Ohio – Advanced Dealer Solutions is proud to welcome Kyle Reese as Managing Partner.
Kyle has nearly 20-years of experience in the automotive industry ranging from working for a large TPA, being a partner in an agency and being a partner in an independent dealership group. His track-record for growth and success is unquestionable.
“Kyle’s experience as a dealer provides him a unique opportunity to help other dealers evaluate their current marketing programs, F&I providers, as well as many other key areas of their business.”– says Bob Mancuso – President of Advanced Dealer Solutions.
“I have known ADS for years and have been impressed with their leadership, professionalism, and vision. I am excited about the opportunity to play a significant role in ADS’s future growth and expansion.” – Kyle Reese
“We are ecstatic to have Kyle as part of the ADS team. His drive, values and purpose fully align with our mission and vision to help dealers achieve more through our independent platform” – says Ryan Nelson – EVP of Advanced Dealer Solutions. Ryan went on to say, “Kyle’s passion for helping dealers succeed is directly in line with ours and makes him a perfect fit for our team”.
Kyle is based in Columbus, OH and will be focused on growing the ADS brand in Central and Southern Ohio as well as Kentucky and Tennessee.
Advanced Dealer Solutions is a full service dealer development agency focused on automotive, RV, and powersports dealers across the United States. Please contact 844-320-3722 or [email protected] for any inquiries.
Richfield, Ohio – Advanced Dealer Solutions is proud to welcome Bruce Osborne as General Manager.
Bruce has three decades of experience serving the F&I industry in a variety of roles since making his start in automotive retail. “Bruce’s roles as Chief Revenue Officer and National Sales Manager at the product administration level make him an ideal fit to help take the ADS team to the next level.”– says Bob Mancuso – President of Advanced Dealer Solutions.
“Advanced Dealer Solutions has a well-earned reputation for overall dealership development. I am excited to be joining such a professional organization. Working together, we will help our dealers achieve new heights.” – Bruce Osborne
“We are excited to have Bruce and his vast industry knowledge available to our team. I am confident he will add immediate value to our dealers and associates.” – says Ryan Nelson – EVP of Advanced Dealer Solutions.
Bruce is based in Springfield, OH and will be focused on current and future dealer relationships alongside the team of ADS F&I training representatives.
Advanced Dealer Solutions is a full service, dealer development agency focused on automotive, RV, and powersports dealers across the United States. Please contact 844-320-3722 or [email protected] for any inquiries.
The data for The 2023 Kerrigan Dealer Survey is based on over 650 responses from franchised auto dealers in Kerrigan Advisors’ proprietary dealer database. Survey responses were collected from June 2023 to October 2023.
2023 Kerrigan Dealer Survey Results Kerrigan Advisors’ fifth annual Dealer Survey was designed to gauge dealer sentiment on the future value of their business, growth plans, earnings expectations, as well as perspectives on franchise values and their trust levels in the OEMs.
The results of this year’s survey found a majority of dealers still have a positive outlook on valuation over the next 12 months with 52% projecting 2023’s strong valuations will sustain into 2024 and 21% expecting an increase next year. That said, more than a quarter of dealers (27%) expect valuations to decrease in the next 12 months, the highest level since the survey’s inception in 2019, and almost double 2019 and 2020’s levels.
The reduction in valuation expectations is consistent with dealers’ views on future profitability (see chart on following page). Only 15% of surveyed dealers project a rise in profits in the next 12 months, while 38% expect a decline. Interestingly, 47% project earnings will stay the same in 2024, a six-percentage point increase from last year and an indication that current earnings, which remain far above pre-pandemic levels, are starting to normalize according to more dealers.
With a rising number of dealers seeing a decline in earnings in the next 12 months, it is not surprising to see an increase in dealers seeking a sale, albeit still a slim minority. 6% of dealers surveyed plan to sell one or more dealerships in the next 12 months, three times 2022’s results. That said, nearly half of dealers still plan to grow their enterprise with 47% looking to add one or more dealerships.
Kerrigan Advisors attributes this growth bias to dealers’ significant capital accounts as a result of more than three years of record profits. Kerrigan Advisors estimates the industry has amassed over $200 billion in pre-tax profits since 2020. In addition to burgeoning capital accounts, the majority of dealers (62%) believe earnings will either stay at 2023’s high level or increase over the next twelve months. This indicates that most dealers do not believe earnings will revert to pre-Covid levels in the near future, if ever, which bodes well for the continuation of a growth bias amongst dealers.
2023 Kerrigan Dealer Survey Results by Franchise
Note: These results reflect the collective view of the 650+ dealers surveyed, regardless of a dealer’s specific franchise ownership.
While the majority of dealers surveyed believe individual franchises will either increase or remain the same in value over the next 12 months, every franchise saw a reduction in the percentage of dealers projecting an increase in value along with a rise in the percentage of dealers expecting a decline in value as compared to 2022. Kerrigan Advisors believes these results are a reflection of the rising discontent within the dealer body regarding OEMs’ electric vehicle (“EV”) strategies and the overabundance of EVs on many dealers’ lots.
Over 40% of surveyed dealers expect these franchises to decline in value in the next 12 months.
Notably, Lincoln and Infiniti’s results are more than double the industry average.
Kerrigan Advisors queried dealers again regarding the expected impact of OEM planned changes to the dealer model on future profitability. The majority of dealers are less concerned than they were in 2022 that OEM changes to retailing will impact their future profitability. Nearly every franchise saw a notable rise in the percentage of dealers who expect no impact on profitability from OEM retailing changes. Kerrigan Advisors believes this marked improvement from the 2022 Dealer Survey is a result of dealers’ skepticism regarding OEMs’ ability to execute on their proposed retailing changes, particularly given weak consumer demand for EVs.
For the first time since Kerrigan Advisors started querying dealers, our firm asked about dealers’ trust level in each franchise. The results were quite noteworthy and echoed the sentiment regarding changes to OEM retailing strategies. Toyota received the top results by far, with 72% of dealers indicating they had a high level of trust in the franchise, over three times higher than the survey average. By contrast, 46% of dealers reported they had no trust in Ford, consistent with the expectation of a decline in future Ford franchise profitability due to the OEM’s EV/future retailing strategy.
Notable Changes for Specific Franchises (2023 versus 2022)
CDJR – CDJR saw a notable increase in dealers expecting the franchise to decline in value, from 24% in 2022 to 53% in 2023 – a 29-percentage point increase. Kerrigan Advisors expects this negative dealer sentiment is a reflection of CDJR’s rising inventory levels and lack of incentive spending. Dealers are concerned Stellantis will continue to oversupply the market with new vehicles resulting in a return to pre-pandemic gross profits on new vehicles and a substantial decline in dealer profitability. Consistent with this change, CDJR ranked 2nd behind Ford as the franchise most expected to see a decline in earnings and value as a result of OEM retailing changes, up from 9th place in last year’s survey. Furthermore, 39% of dealers have no trust in CDJR, placing the OEM as the 4th least trusted franchise.
Ford –Ford remains the franchise most expected to see a decline in profits as a result of the OEM’s changes to its retailing model. Consistent with this negative sentiment, Ford is the non-luxury franchise least expected to see a rise in valuation in the next 12 months. These results reflect dealers’ lack of trust in the OEM with Ford ranking as the least trusted franchise – 48% of dealers surveyed reported that they had no trust in Ford, the highest percentage of any franchise. Kerrigan Advisors expects this negative sentiment to impact Ford’s future blue sky multiple and franchise valuation.
Kia – This franchise surpassed Toyota for the first time in 2022 to become the franchise most expected to increase in value over the next 12 months. Impressively, it sustained its improved results in 2023. Notably, Kia saw one of the largest increases in positive profit expectations as a result of expected changes to its retailing model and ranked as the 8th most trusted franchise. These positive results are consistent with Kerrigan Advisors’ upgrade of Kia’s franchise multiple in the second quarter of 2023 and positive outlook for 2024.
Toyota –Toyota continues to outperform on every level. Most notably, Toyota is the most trusted franchise by dealers, scoring 17 percentage points higher than its nearest non-luxury competitor Subaru. This monumental lead in the trust equation has resulted in the franchise having the highest expected increase in profits as a result of the OEM’s retailing changes with only 7% expecting a decline, the second to lowest level behind its sister franchise, Lexus. Most impressive, despite having the highest blue sky multiple of all non-luxury franchises, dealers expect the franchise’s value will continue to rise. These results are consistent with the buyer demand Kerrigan Advisors sees for Toyota franchises.
The 2023 Kerrigan Dealer Survey results demonstrate the changing auto retail environment and dealers’ perspectives of the OEMs. The majority of dealers project profits and valuations will remain at or rise above post-pandemic levels over the next 12 months, though an increasing minority have a more negative outlook. Nearly half of dealers are seeking to acquire dealerships in the next 12 months, despite higher interest rates, an indication of an overall positive industry outlook. That said, dealers have distinctly varying views on specific franchises, with certain OEMs eliciting a lack of trust and confidence, while others earn a high level of trust and strong profit expectations.
Based on these results, Kerrigan Advisors believes there is more risk to valuations and the buy/sell market going into 2024, though we expect transaction activity will remain elevated as dealers seek to add scale to their business and believe OEM retail changes will have minimal impact on future profits.
Methodology
The data for The Kerrigan Dealer Survey was gathered from Kerrigan Advisors’ annual survey of auto dealers in conjunction with the issuance of The Blue Sky Report. The Kerrigan Dealer Survey is based on 650+ anonymous responses from franchised auto dealers in Kerrigan Advisors’ proprietary dealer database. Responses were collected from June 2023 to October 2023.
Another month flies by at a seemingly record pace! It is shocking that we are down to our last two months of 2023. The good news is we all have 60 days to make the most of this year and head into 2024 with momentum on our side.
November brings us the Thanksgiving holiday which makes it a great month to stop, take stock and appreciate all that we have to be thankful for.
At ADS we are all thankful for the successful year we are having, the dealers we get to work with, and the incredible additions we have added to our team. Please take a moment and meet our newest team members to learn a little about them as well as the role they will play here at ADS.
In terms of other industry matters, it is good to know the strike has been settled and manufacturing can resume at the affected plants. Additionally, there is a lot of news coming out about the BEV market and how oversold the hype for electric really seemed to be. It will be interesting to see where the consumers and the industry end up taking the BEV offerings the many manufactures chose to race to market with. There are a few recent articles below which provide some good insight into some of the shift in enthusiasm.
Vehicles: 2019 Cadillac CTS-V Sedan – Satin Silver 2019 Cadillac CTS-V Sedan – White 2017 Cadillac CTS-V Sedan -Gray 2017 Cadillac CTS-V Sedan – Silver 2016 Cadillac CTS V Sedan Red 2019 Chevrolet Corvette Red 2022 Chevrolet Camaro Black/White
Activation: Pennsylvania State Police Selinsgrove, PA
Recoveries: Pennsylvania State Police Auto Theft Task Force (PSP-ATTF) Pennsylvania State Police Selinsgrove, PA Washington Metro DC Police Swedesboro Police, NJ
Dealership: Murry Motors Selinsgrove, PA
On October 2, 2023, at about 7 AM as employees from the car dealership came to work, they discovered that the dealership had been broken into and several vehicles were missing from the lot. Using the GEO-Fence option on the LoJack GPS App, they were able to determine immediately what vehicles had been stolen. The dealership notified the Pennsylvania State Police, Selinsgrove who took the initial report. The Pennsylvania State Police Auto Theft Task Force was notified and responded to the scene. Working with the General Manager from the dealership who has access to the LoJack GPS App, within minutes, they were able to determine the current locations of each of the seven stolen vehicles. The Pennsylvania State Police Auto Theft Task Force sent Troopers to locate and recover most of the stolen vehicles that were still in Pennsylvania. However, two of the stolen vehicles had already left the State of Pennsylvania. With information supplied by the Pennsylvania State Police Auto Theft Task Force, the 2022 Chevrolet Camaro was located and recovered by the Swedesboro Police Department in New Jersey. The 2017 Cadilac CTS-V (color Silver) was located and recovered by the Washington DC Metro Police, in Washington DC.
The value of the seven recovered stolen vehicles was estimated at a little over a half million dollars.
The Pennsylvania State Police Auto Theft Task Force said that the investigation is continuing. They have reached out to the LoJack Regional Law Enforcement Liaison Team to assist with their efforts.
